Roque, NatáliaAlmeida, AliceFernandez, PauloRibeiro, M.M.A.Alegria, C.M.M.2026-01-222026-01-222026ROQUE, Natália [et al.] (2026) - Climate-informed afforestation planning in Portugal: Balancing wood and non-wood production. Forests. 17(1), 139. DOI: 10.390/f17010139http://hdl.handle.net/10400.11/10485The data files used in the study can be requested by email from the corresponding author but are also openly available at the following link: https://sig.icnf.pt/portal/home/item.html?id=dc60bcef20b844b88c8a0638d0fe943b (accessed on 15 January 2026).This study explores the potential for afforestation in Portugal that could balance wood and non-wood forest production under future climate change scenarios. The Climate Envelope Models (CEM) approach was employed with three main objectives: (1) to model the current distribution of key Portuguese forest species—eucalypts, maritime pine, umbrella pine, chestnut, and cork oak—based on their suitability for wood and non-wood production; (2) to project their potential distribution for the years 2070 and 2090 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP2–4.5 (moderate) and SSP5–8.5 (high emissions); and (3) to generate integrated species distribution maps identifying both current and future high-suitability zones to support afforestation planning, reflecting climatic compatibility under fixed thresholds. Species’ current CMEs were produced using an additive Boolean model with a set of environmental variables (e.g., temperature-related and precipitation-related, elevation, and soil) specific to each species. Species’ current CEMs were validated using forest inventory data and the official Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) map of Portugal, and a good agreement was obtained (>99%). By the end of the 21st century, marked reductions in species suitability are projected, especially for chestnut (36%–44%) and maritime pine (25%–35%). Incorporating future suitability projections and preventive silvicultural practices into afforestation planning is therefore essential to ensure climate-resilient and ecologically friendly forest management.engClimate Envelope ModelsForest speciesSuitabilityClimate changeresearch article10.390/f17010139