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Future habitat suitability for species under climate change: lessons learned from the strawberry tree case study

2021Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorGerassis, Saki
dc.contributor.authorAlbuquerque, M.T.D
dc.contributor.authorRoque, Natália
dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, Sílvia
dc.contributor.authorTaboada, Javier
dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, M.M.A.
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-05T10:14:10Z
dc.date.available2023-12-31T01:30:42Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.abstractClimate change is already a reality, and habitat loss is affecting relentlessly tree species distributions. The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L., Ericaceae) is a Mediterranean evergreen tree used in this article as a case study to evince its expected threatening situation in the upcoming age. This research work seeks to identify the bioclimatic and physiographic variables that have the most impact on the strawberry tree’s spatial distribution in Portugal, acquiring vital knowledge for the design of accurate conservation and afforestation plans for the use and conservation of strawberry tree, working as a guide under a climate change scenario. For that, twenty-one bioclimatic variables, two physiographic attributes (altitude and slope), and the Emberger Index (EI) were used together with 318 observations of strawberry trees, to build a scalable Bayesian procedure, based on machine learning techniques, aimed to assess the species’ future habitat evolution through three temporal scenarios: (i) Control Run (1960–1990); (ii) 2050 and (iii) 2070. The results indicate for 2050 a 30% loss of the humid subregion and a 35% increase in the semi-arid sub-region towards the north. In 2070, it is expected a 2% recuperation for the sub-humid area, but an 8% loss of the humid sub-area. Under these extreme climate change conditions, it is anticipated an almost complete loss of habitat for the strawberry tree in the south of Portugal. The expected ecological evolvability may trigger future migration paths and new refuges’ settlement in the northern sub-region for the succeeding decades and suggesting after 2070 the possibility of habitat switch and species drifting.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationGERASSIS, Saki [et al.] (2021) - Future habitat suitability for species under climate change: lessons learned from the strawberry tree case study. Forest Ecology and Management. ISSN 0378-1127. Vol. 491, p. 119150. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119150pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119150pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn0378-1127
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.11/7610
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relationFCT CERNAS UID/AMB/00681/2019pt_PT
dc.relationForest Research Centre
dc.relationTree species response to climate change using anciet DNA
dc.relationProjetos de encerramento de minas de quartzo na Galiza - definição de planos de recuperação ambiental
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112721002383pt_PT
dc.subjectArbutus unedopt_PT
dc.subjectClimate changept_PT
dc.subjectBayesian networkpt_PT
dc.subjectHabitat suitabilitypt_PT
dc.subjectMigrationpt_PT
dc.subjectNatural refugept_PT
dc.titleFuture habitat suitability for species under climate change: lessons learned from the strawberry tree case studypt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleForest Research Centre
oaire.awardTitleTree species response to climate change using anciet DNA
oaire.awardTitleProjetos de encerramento de minas de quartzo na Galiza - definição de planos de recuperação ambiental
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UID%2FAGR%2F00239%2F2013/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/OE/SFRH%2FBSAB%2F113895%2F2015/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/5876/UID%2FAMB%2F00681%2F2013/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//SFRH%2FBSAB%2F127907%2F2016/PT
oaire.citation.startPage119150pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleForest Ecology and Managementpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume491pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
oaire.fundingStreamOE
oaire.fundingStream5876
person.familyNameAlbuquerque
person.familyNameMartins Roque
person.familyNameRibeiro
person.familyNameRibeiro
person.givenNameMaria Teresa
person.givenNameNatália
person.givenNameSilvia
person.givenNameMaria Margarida
person.identifierNatália Martins Roque
person.identifier349097
person.identifier.ciencia-id5A1C-8956-4C0A
person.identifier.ciencia-id451A-332D-0798
person.identifier.ciencia-idB21E-9D3F-787E
person.identifier.ciencia-idAD12-4D32-7A48
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8782-6133
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-8859-4365
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3297-178X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4684-1262
person.identifier.ridB-1536-2013
person.identifier.ridM-4235-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55507421600
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57200227653
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55420209800
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7201715611
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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