Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development

Funder

Organizational Unit

Publications

Species distribution modelling under climate change scenarios for maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) in Portugal

Publication . Alegria, C.M.M.; Almeida, Alice; Roque, Natália; Fernandez, Paulo; Ribeiro, M.M.A.

To date, a variety of species potential distribution mapping approaches have been used, and the agreement in maps produced with different methodological approaches should be assessed. The aims of this study were: (1) to model Maritime pine potential distributions for the present and for the future under two climate change scenarios using the machine learning Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt); (2) to update the species ecological envelope maps using the same environmental data set and climate change scenarios; and (3) to perform an agreement analysis for the species distribution maps produced with both methodological approaches. The species distribution maps produced by each of the methodological approaches under study were reclassified into presence– absence binary maps of species to perform the agreement analysis. The results showed that the MaxEnt-predicted map for the present matched well the species’ current distribution, but the species ecological envelope map, also for the present, was closer to the species’ empiric potential distribution. Climate change impacts on the species’ future distributions maps using the MaxEnt were moderate, but areas were relocated. The 47.3% suitability area (regular-medium-high), in the present, increased in future climate change scenarios to 48.7%–48.3%. Conversely, the impacts in species ecological envelopes maps were higher and with greater future losses than the latter. The 76.5% suitability area (regular-favourable-optimum), in the present, decreased in future climate change scenarios to 58.2%–51.6%. The two approaches combination resulted in a 44% concordance for the species occupancy in the present, decreasing around 30%–35% in the future under the climate change scenarios. Both methodologies proved to be complementary to set species’ best suitability areas, which are key as support decision tools for planning afforestation and forest management to attain fire-resilient landscapes, enhanced forest ecosystems biodiversity, functionality and productivity.

2023Journal article

Open access

Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L

Publication . Almeida, Alice; Ribeiro, M.M.A.; Ferreira, Miguel R.; Roque, Natália; Quintela-Sabarís, Celestino; Fernandez, Paulo

Climate change’s huge impact on Mediterranean species’ habitat suitability and spatial and temporal distribution in the coming decades is expected. The present work aimed to reconstruct rockrose (Cistus ladanifer L.) historical and future spatial distribution, a typically Mediterranean species with abundant occurrence in North Africa, Iberian Peninsula, and Southern France. The R ensemble modeling approach was made using the biomod2 package to assess changes in the spatial distribution of the species in the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the Middle Holocene (MH), in the present, and in the future (for the years 2050 and 2070), considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The current species potential distribution was modeled using 2,833 occurrences, six bioclimatic variables, and four algorithms, Generalized Linear Model (GLM), MaxEnt, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two global climate models (GCMs), CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3, were used to forecast past and future suitability. The potential area of occurrence of the species is equal to 15.8 and 14.1% of the study area for current and LIG conditions, while it decreased to 3.8% in the LGM. The species’ presence diaminished more than half in the RCP 4.5 (to 6.8% in 2050 and 7% in 2070), and a too low figure (2.2%) in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) for 2070. The results suggested that the current climatic conditions are the most suitable for the species’ occurrence and that future changes in environmental conditions may lead to the loss of suitable habitats, especially in the worst-case scenario. The information unfolded by this study will help to understand future predictable desertification in the Mediterranean region and to help policymakers to implement possible measures for biodiversity maintenance and desertification avoidance.

2023Journal article

Open access