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Prediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.

2022Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorAlmeida, Alice
dc.contributor.authorMartins, M. João
dc.contributor.authorCampagnolo, Manuel Lameiras
dc.contributor.authorFernandez, Paulo
dc.contributor.authorAlbuquerque, M.T.D.
dc.contributor.authorGerassis, Saki
dc.contributor.authorGonçalves, José Carlos
dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, M.M.A.
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-14T16:14:23Z
dc.date.available2022-01-14T16:14:23Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractClimate change is a challenge for forests in the coming decades, with a major impact on species adaptation and distribution. The Mediterranean Basin is one of the most vulnerable hotspots for biodiversity conservation under climate change in the world. This research aimed at studying a Mediterranean species well adapted to the region: the Arbutus unedo L. (strawberry tree). The MaxEnt, a presence-only species-distribution software, was used to model A. unedo’s environmental suitability. The current species potential distribution was accessed based on actual occurrences and selected environmental variables and subsequently projected for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), and the years 2050 and 2070, considering the two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results from the LGM projection suggest the presence of refugia in the core of the Mediterranean Basin, in particular the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The projections for the MH indicate increasing climatic suitability for the species and an eastward expansion, relatively to LGM. The predicted future environmental changes will most likely act as a catalyst for suitable habitat loss and a range shift towards the North is likely to occur.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/s41598-021-03996-0pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.11/7856
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherNaturept_PT
dc.relationCentro-01-0145-FEDER-000019 – C4 – Centro de Competências em Cloud Computing, CENTRO 2020pt_PT
dc.relationFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (UIDB/00239/2020)pt_PT
dc.relationFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (UIDB/00681/2020)pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectEcologypt_PT
dc.subjectMaxEntpt_PT
dc.subjectEcological modellingpt_PT
dc.subjectClimate changept_PT
dc.titlePrediction scenarios of past, present, and future environmental suitability for the Mediterranean species Arbutus unedo L.pt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.issue1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleScientific Reportspt_PT
oaire.citation.volume12pt_PT
person.familyNameFernandez
person.familyNameAlbuquerque
person.familyNameGonçalves
person.familyNameRibeiro
person.givenNamePaulo
person.givenNameMaria Teresa
person.givenNameJosé
person.givenNameMaria Margarida
person.identifier508085
person.identifier349097
person.identifier.ciencia-id9E1E-1C0B-0DCB
person.identifier.ciencia-id5A1C-8956-4C0A
person.identifier.ciencia-idAE1F-12BE-65DD
person.identifier.ciencia-idAD12-4D32-7A48
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7252-8320
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8782-6133
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-3387-4487
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4684-1262
person.identifier.ridB-1536-2013
person.identifier.ridM-4235-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id56675313500
person.identifier.scopus-author-id55507421600
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7103325479
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7201715611
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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