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- Bioclimatic modelling and environmental tolerance to global change in strawberry treePublication . Ribeiro, M.M.A.; Roque, Natália; Ribeiro, Sílvia; Albuquerque, M.T.D.; Gavinhos, Catarina; Quinta-Nova, L. C.The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) displays potential to be successfully businesslike-cultured in several areas of Portugal and southern Europe, but remains largely a neglected crop. This region is also particularly vulnerable to global warming, reduction of precipitations and a long-term negative effect on vegetation. To investigate interactions between the species’ distribution and ecological factors we used 319 plots (1km grid level), where the species are present in Portugal, characterized with 8 ecological attributes: ombrothermic Index (OI), thermicity Index (TI) and continentality Index (CI), pH, organic matter (OM), sand, topographic position index (TPI), number of fires (NF) and burned area (BA). The obtained matrix was firstly analyzed through PCA to reduce the space of analysis by a construction of synthesis variables (Spearman’s rank correlation matrix) and thus to detect patterns within the data set and possible collinear covariates. Finally, the vulnerability of strawberry tree to the effects of global climate change was examined. For that purpose, two ‘representative concentration pathways’ (RCPs) scenarios were predicted (RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0) using climatic data, extracted from WorldClim, for distribution changes characterization in two periods (2050 and 2070). The MaxEnt allowed spatial Interpolation using the 319 1K plots. The PCA showed that the climatic attributes (OI, and TI) displayed the highest components’ correlation values. The strawberry tree prefers areas with higher TI and lower acidity values within the mesomediterranean and termomediterranean belts. Additionally, with lower correlation values, the presence of the species is explained by lower OI values, OM, BA and NF. The prediction results revealed reduction of the potential area of the species, providing a key tool to support conservation management decisions, to design regions of provenance, and to manage genetic improvement programs.
- Bioclimatic modeling in the last glacial maximum, mid-holocene and facing future climatic changes in the strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.)Publication . Ribeiro, M.M.A.; Roque, Natália; Ribeiro, Sílvia; Gavinhos, Catarina; Silva, Isabel Castanheira; Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Albuquerque, M.T.D.; Gerassis, SakiIncreasing forest wildfires in Portugal remain a growing concern since forests in the Mediterranean region are vulnerable to recent global warming and reduction of precipitation. Therefore, a long-term negative effect is expected on the vegetation, with increasing drought and areas burnt by fires. The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) is particularly used in Portugal to produce a spirit by processing its fruits and is the main income for forestry owners. Other applications are possible due to the fruit and leaves' anti-oxidant properties and bioactive compounds production, with a potential for clinical and food uses. It is a sclerophyllous plant, dry-adapted and fire resistant, enduring the Mediterranean climate, and recently considered as a possibility for afforestation, to intensify forest discontinuity where pines and eucalypts monoculture dominate the region. To improve our knowledge about the species' spatial distribution we used 318 plots (the centroid of a 1 km2 square grid) measuring the species presence and nine environmental attributes. The seven bioclimatic variables most impacting on the species distribution and two topographic features, slope and altitude, were used. The past, current and future climate data were obtained through WorldClim. Finally, the vulnerability of the strawberry tree to the effects of global climate change was examined in the face of two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to predict distribution changes in the years 2050 and 2070, using a species distribution models (MaxEnt). The reduction of suitable habitat for this species is significant in the southern regions, considering the future scenarios of global warming. Central and northern mountainous regions are putative predicted refuges for this species. Forest policy and management should reflect the impact of climate change on the usable areas for forestry, particularly considering species adapted to the Mediterranean regions and wildfires, such as the strawberry tree. The distribution of the species in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid-Holocene (MH) agrees with previous genetic and paleontological studies in the region, which support putative refuges for the species. Two in the southern and coastal-central regions, since the LGM, and one in the east-central mountainous region, considered as cryptic refugia.
- Bioclimatic modelling in the holocene and in future warming scenarios in Arbutus unedo L.Publication . Ribeiro, M.M.A.; Roque, Natália; Ribeiro, Sílvia; Gavinhos, Catarina; Silva, Isabel Castanheira; Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Albuquerque, M.T.D.; Gerassis Davite, SakiGrowing forests wildfires in Portugal are an increasing concern since forests in the Mediterranean region are vulnerable to recent global warming. Long-term negative effects are expected on the vegetation with the coming increasing drought. The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) displays potential to be a successfully business-like cultured in several regions of Portugal and southern Europe, as it is well adapted to climate and soils. In Portugal, this species has been used by local populations particularly for spirit production and for fruit consumption, although it has different possible commercial uses, from processed and fresh fruit production to ornamental, pharmaceutical and chemical applications. In addition, due to its pioneer status, it is valuable for land recovery and desertification avoidance, besides being fire resistant. The available strawberry tree’s data is presence-only. For modelling purposes, a set of placements within the landscape of interest (Portugal) was applied. The species, observed in 318 plots, together with a vector of environmental covariates (7 bioclimatic attributes, slope and altitude) and a defined background were used for modeling purposes. Maxent 3.4.1 was the used software, where the estimated quantity is the probability of the presence of the species, conditioned on the environment. Maxent uses the environmental covariate data from the occurrence records and the background sample, to estimate the ratio between the conditional density of the covariates at the presence sites and the marginal (i.e., unconditional) density of covariates across the study area and so, estimating the relative suitability of one place vs. another. Three different climate scenarios (control run; 2050 and 2070) were tested for two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, WorldClim), besides the past, 6,000 BP (Mid-Holocene). The reduction of habitat suitable for this species is very significant in the southern regions, even for the best warming scenario (RCP 4.5) in 2050. Central and Northern mountain regions are predicted refuge for this species. Forest policies and management should consider the impact of climate change on the usable areas for forestry, seeing a case-study species particularly adapted to the Mediterranean regions and wildfires, such as strawberry tree. The distribution of the species in the Middle Holocene agrees with previous genetic and fossils studies in the region, which supported two putative refuges for the species since the Last Glacial Maximum and a cryptic refugia in the East-Central mountain region.