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- Trend forecasting in swimming world records and in the age of world record holdersPublication . Costa, Mário; Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Ferreira, Sandra; Costa, Aldo M.; Santos, Catarina CostaThis study aimed to forecast trends in swimming world records (WRs) and in the age of record holders. A total of 566 individual freestyle WRs (290 for males and 276 for females) were retrieved from open access websites. The frequency of observations in WRs in each decade and event was computed for males and females. The swimmers’ chronological age was converted into decimal age at the time of breaking the world record. ARIMA forecasting models and exponential smoothing techniques were used to examine historical trends and predict future observations. The WRs improved over time, and there was a nuanced pattern in the age of world record holders. While certain events (50 m and 100 m) showed swimmers achieving records at older ages, others (e.g., 200 m, 400 m, 800 m, and 1500 m) displayed variations. Forecasting shows a continuing improvement in WRs in the upcoming years, with the age of male world record holders stabilizing in shorter events and decreasing in longer distance ones, while for females, general stabilization should be expected for the majority of competitive events.
- The coaches' perceptions and experience implementing a long-term athletic development model in competitive swimmingPublication . Costa, Mário; Santos, Catarina Costa; Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Costa, Aldo M.; Silva, António; Barbosa, TiagoThe aim of this study was to analyze the association between coaches’ experience and their perceptions on the implementation of a long-term athletic development (LTAD) model created in 2016 by the Portuguese Swimming Federation. Eighty-six swimming coaches were assembled in groups according to their experience level: “novice” (n = 24), “intermediate” (n = 26), and “experienced” (n = 36), and they answered a questionnaire with the following items: (i) awareness of the existing model (ii) acceptance (iii) usefulness for practice, and (iv) implementation of this model by their peers. Regardless of experience, ~67% of the coaches were aware of the model. Among those, a large number showed acceptance (~95%) and confidence in its usefulness (~83%) for their daily practice. Most coaches (92%) showed concerns about the fact that their peers do not respect the model frameworks, declaring the search for their swimmers’ immediate success (~58%) as the main cause for such behavior. The results also showed an association between experience and knowledge about the model’s existence [χ2 (2) = 10.223, p < 0.01, V = 0.345], and experienced coaches exhibited better knowledge than their intermediate [χ2 (2) = 9.555, p < 0.01, V = 0.393] or novice [χ2 (2) = 5.926, p = 0.02, V = 0.314] counterparts. While there was an association between the coaches’ experience and knowledge about the LTAD model’s existence, this situation does not seem to influence the way coaches accept and understand the usefulness of the model for their daily practice.
- Análise retrospetiva de recordes do mundo em natação: Estarão os recordistas mais velhos?Publication . Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Costa, Mário; Costa, Aldo M.Nos últimos anos tem-se assistido a um interesse considerável no desenvolvimento de atletas tomando a noção de preparação desportiva a longo prazo (PDLP) como ferramenta essencial de planeamento. Parece estar a assistir-se a quebra de recordes mundiais por parte de nadadores que apresentam idades cada vez mais avançadas. Não obstante esta constatação, a investigação nesta matéria permanece escassa. Neste estudo pretende-se verificar uma possível tendência de aumento da longevidade de atletas de nível internacional, mais concretamente proceder a uma análise retrospetiva da idade dos recordistas mundiais, tendo-se selecionado para o efeito o estilo Costas no setor Masculino.