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Bioclimatic modeling in the Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene and facing future climatic changes in the strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.)

2019Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, M.M.A.
dc.contributor.authorRoque, Natália
dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, Sílvia
dc.contributor.authorGavinhos, Catarina
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Isabel Castanheira
dc.contributor.authorQuinta-Nova, L.C.
dc.contributor.authorAlbuquerque, M.T.D.
dc.contributor.authorGerassis, Saki
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-17T17:36:44Z
dc.date.available2019-01-17T17:36:44Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.description.abstractIncreasing forest wildfires in Portugal remain a growing concern since forests in the Mediterranean region are vulnerable to recent global warming and reduction of precipitation. Therefore, a long-term negative effect is expected on the vegetation, with increasing drought and areas burnt by fires. The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) is particularly used in Portugal to produce a spirit by processing its fruits and is the main income for forestry owners. Other applications are possible due to the fruit and leaves' anti-oxidant properties and bioactive compounds production, with a potential for clinical and food uses. It is a sclerophyllous plant, dry-adapted and fire resistant, enduring the Mediterranean climate, and recently considered as a possibility for afforestation, to intensify forest discontinuity where pines and eucalypts monoculture dominate the region. To improve our knowledge about the species' spatial distribution we used 318 plots (the centroid of a 1 km2 square grid) measuring the species presence and nine environmental attributes. The seven bioclimatic variables most impacting on the species distribution and two topographic features, slope and altitude, were used. The past, current and future climate data were obtained through WorldClim. Finally, the vulnerability of the strawberry tree to the effects of global climate change was examined in the face of two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to predict distribution changes in the years 2050 and 2070, using a species distribution models (MaxEnt). The reduction of suitable habitat for this species is significant in the southern regions, considering the future scenarios of global warming. Central and northern mountainous regions are putative predicted refuges for this species. Forest policy and management should reflect the impact of climate change on the usable areas for forestry, particularly considering species adapted to the Mediterranean regions and wildfires, such as the strawberry tree. The distribution of the species in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid-Holocene (MH) agrees with previous genetic and paleontological studies in the region, which support putative refuges for the species. Two in the southern and coastal-central regions, since the LGM, and one in the east-central mountainous region, considered as cryptic refugia.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationRibeiro, M. M,A. N Roque, S Ribeiro, C Gavinhos, I Castanheira, L.C. Quinta-Nova, M.T.D. Albuquerque, S Gerassis, 2019: Bioclimatic modeling in the Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene and facing future climatic changes in the strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.). PLoS One 14, e0210062.pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0210062pt_PT
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.11/6330
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.relationTree species response to climate change using anciet DNA
dc.relationProjetos de encerramento de minas de quartzo na Galiza - definição de planos de recuperação ambiental
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectbioclimatic modelingpt_PT
dc.subjectclimate changept_PT
dc.subjecthabitat suitabilitypt_PT
dc.subjectArbutus unedopt_PT
dc.subjectMid-Holocenept_PT
dc.subjectLast Glacial Maximumpt_PT
dc.titleBioclimatic modeling in the Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene and facing future climatic changes in the strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.)pt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleTree species response to climate change using anciet DNA
oaire.awardTitleProjetos de encerramento de minas de quartzo na Galiza - definição de planos de recuperação ambiental
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/5876/UID%2FAGR%2F00239%2F2013/PT
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oaire.citation.issue1pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPagee0210062pt_PT
oaire.citation.titlePLoS ONEpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume14pt_PT
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person.familyNameRibeiro
person.familyNameAlegria
person.familyNameRibeiro
person.familyNameGavinhos
person.familyNameSilva
person.familyNameQuinta-Nova
person.familyNameAlbuquerque
person.givenNameMaria Margarida
person.givenNameCristina Maria
person.givenNameSilvia
person.givenNameCatarina
person.givenNameIsabel
person.givenNameLuís
person.givenNameMaria Teresa
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