Predicting the effectiveness of Tagus International Nature Park in protecting vegetation under climate change

Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Ribeiro, Sílvia

Publication

Predicting the effectiveness of Tagus International Nature Park in protecting vegetation under climate change

2024Journal article

dc.contributor.author	Quinta-Nova, L.C.
dc.contributor.author	Ribeiro, Sílvia
dc.date.accessioned	2024-12-19T16:01:12Z
dc.date.available	2024-12-19T16:01:12Z
dc.date.issued	2024
dc.description.abstract	Climate change induces a redistribution of life on Earth, affecting protected areas' effectiveness. Species shift their ranges under climate change to track suitable climate, mainly shifting poleward and toward higher elevation. They often face degraded habitats in human-dominated landscapes and a higher extinction threat. Also, climate change may result in the loss of combinations of climatic conditions restricted to a given protected area. On the other hand, species with restricted occurrence might expand their distribution range as a result of climate change. To study the effectiveness of Tagus International Nature Park, located in the center-eastern part of Portugal, Maxent modeling approach was used to model the current distribution of three shrub species—Pistacia terebinthus L., Juniperus oxycedrus L., and Rhamnus lycioides L.—indicators of a typical Mediterranean vegetation with a regional distribution restricted to the Tagus International Natural Park, and project its future distribution considering different General Circulation Models, periods (2060 and 2080), and Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5). The variables most impacting the species distribution were the mean precipitation of the driest quarter, annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, and slope. The results suggested some range expansion in the future for all three species in the studied scenarios. Those species and the vegetation where they occur will probably remain confined to center-eastern Portugal in the future, where they will continue to face relevant threats like human activity, reinforcing the need for its conservation.	pt_PT
dc.description.version	info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion	pt_PT
dc.identifier.citation	QUINTA-NOVA, L.C. ; RIBEIRO, S. (2024) - Predicting the effectiveness of Tagus International Nature Park in protecting vegetation under climate change. In In: Ksibi, M., et al. Recent Advances in Environmental Science from the Euro-Mediterranean and Surrounding Regions (4th Edition). EMCEI 2022. Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation. Springer, Cham. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-51904-8_83	pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi	doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-51904-8_83	pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn	2522-8714
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10400.11/9248
dc.language.iso	eng	pt_PT
dc.peerreviewed	yes	pt_PT
dc.publisher	Springer	pt_PT
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/	pt_PT
dc.subject	Climate change	pt_PT
dc.subject	Environmental variables	pt_PT
dc.subject	Plant Species modeling	pt_PT
dc.title	Predicting the effectiveness of Tagus International Nature Park in protecting vegetation under climate change	pt_PT
dc.type	journal article
dspace.entity.type	Publication
oaire.citation.endPage	377	pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage	373	pt_PT
oaire.citation.title	Advances in Science, Technology & Innovation	pt_PT
person.familyName	Quinta-Nova
person.familyName	Ribeiro
person.givenName	Luís
person.givenName	Silvia
person.identifier.ciencia-id	7E1C-426F-DCFF
person.identifier.ciencia-id	B21E-9D3F-787E
person.identifier.orcid	0000-0002-8464-7527
person.identifier.orcid	0000-0002-3297-178X
person.identifier.rid	O-2888-2014
person.identifier.scopus-author-id	36094927600
person.identifier.scopus-author-id	55420209800
rcaap.rights	openAccess	pt_PT
rcaap.type	article	pt_PT
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