Browsing by Author "Figueiredo, Albano"
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- Climate-driven habitat shifts and conservation implications for the submediterranean oak Quercus pyrenaica Willd.Publication . Passos, Isabel; Vila-Viçosa , Carlos; Gonçalves , João; Figueiredo, Albano; Ribeiro, M.M.A.Climate change poses a major threat to forests, impacting the distribution and viability of key species. Quercus pyrenaicaWilld., a marcescent oak endemic to the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) and southwestern France and a structural species in submediterranean forests, is particularly susceptible to shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. Aiming to assess its potential loss of suitable area under future climate scenarios, we developed high-resolution spatial distribution models to project the future habitat suitability of Q. pyrenaica under two climate change scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2070 and 2100. Our model, which has an excellent predictive performance (AUC of 0.971 and a TSS of 0.834), indicates a predominantly northward shift in the potential distribution of the species, accompanied by substantial habitat loss in southern and lowland regions. Long-term potential suitable area may shrink to 42% of that currently available. This, combined with the limited natural dispersal capacity of the species, highlights the urgency of targeted management and conservation strategies. These results offer critical insights to inform conservation strategies and forest management under ongoing climate change.
- Pyrenean oak forests under global change - integrating projected suitable areas in management planPublication . Passos, Isabel; Almeida, Alice A.; Vila-Viçosa, Carlos; Ribeiro, Maria Margarida; Figueiredo, AlbanoForests provide broad ecosystem services (ES), and their contribution to regulation and maintenance services (e.g. carbon sequestration, soil formation, habitat protection, erosion control) explains why forest recovery/expansion is an effective nature-based solution for climate change mitigation. Thus, forest restoration measures must integrate results about expected changes in species distribution, as future climate change may promote range shifts and suitable habitat loss, followed by species turnover. Expected changes in forest species’ potential distribution should be considered in forest ecosystem restoration planning actions, to increase long-term success, and enhance ES at long term. Pyrenean oak (Quercus pyrenaica) is a native species to the western Mediterranean Basin, and a structural tree in central and northern inland Portugal forests, together with pedunculate oak (Q. robur subsp. broteroana). Despite the extensive potential growing area, it has a fragmented distribution due to fast-growing forest species reforestation, agriculture, and other land-use impacts. In this work, we used species distribution models (SDMs) to assess changes in suitable areas for the Pyrenean oak under two climate change scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585), aiming to guide forest recovery measures dedicated to ES enhancement at long term. The Pyrenean oak's entire native range was considered in the models’ calibration, and different algorithms were used. The results suggest that the species' total suitable area will be negatively affected by climate change in the future, with a clear suitability turnover with other oak species, namely more dryness-adapted ones. Overall, Quercus pyrenaica suitable area will decline, and management actions should consider this aspect in future restoration plans, especially at the edges of its current distribution area
- Uncertainties in plant species niche modeling under climate change scenariosPublication . Passos, Isabel; Figueiredo, Albano; Almeida, Alice; Ribeiro, M.M.A.Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to forecast the impact of climate change on species’ potential distribution, with results that might support decisions for conservation and biodiversity management. Despite their vulnerability to parameterization and data quality input, SDM use has been increasing in the last decades. In fact, inappropriate inputs and the lack of awareness about the effects of methodological decisions on results can lead to potential unreliability in results, a problem that might gain relevance when SDMs are used to predict climate change impacts on species-suitable areas. Aiming to assess how far such a topic is considered, an analysis of the calibration data and methodological decisions was conducted for recent publications (2018 to 2022) that include SDMs in this context, aiming to identify putative deviations from the consensual best practices. Results show that the parameters presented more consistently are the algorithm in use (MaxEnt was used in 98% of the studies), the