Forest Research Centre

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Species distribution modelling under climate change scenarios for maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) in Portugal

Publication . Alegria, C.M.M.; Almeida, Alice; Roque, Natália; Fernandez, Paulo; Ribeiro, M.M.A.

To date, a variety of species potential distribution mapping approaches have been used, and the agreement in maps produced with different methodological approaches should be assessed. The aims of this study were: (1) to model Maritime pine potential distributions for the present and for the future under two climate change scenarios using the machine learning Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt); (2) to update the species ecological envelope maps using the same environmental data set and climate change scenarios; and (3) to perform an agreement analysis for the species distribution maps produced with both methodological approaches. The species distribution maps produced by each of the methodological approaches under study were reclassified into presence– absence binary maps of species to perform the agreement analysis. The results showed that the MaxEnt-predicted map for the present matched well the species’ current distribution, but the species ecological envelope map, also for the present, was closer to the species’ empiric potential distribution. Climate change impacts on the species’ future distributions maps using the MaxEnt were moderate, but areas were relocated. The 47.3% suitability area (regular-medium-high), in the present, increased in future climate change scenarios to 48.7%–48.3%. Conversely, the impacts in species ecological envelopes maps were higher and with greater future losses than the latter. The 76.5% suitability area (regular-favourable-optimum), in the present, decreased in future climate change scenarios to 58.2%–51.6%. The two approaches combination resulted in a 44% concordance for the species occupancy in the present, decreasing around 30%–35% in the future under the climate change scenarios. Both methodologies proved to be complementary to set species’ best suitability areas, which are key as support decision tools for planning afforestation and forest management to attain fire-resilient landscapes, enhanced forest ecosystems biodiversity, functionality and productivity.

2023Journal article

Open access

Big data help to define climate change challenges for the typical Mediterranean species Cistus ladanifer L

Publication . Almeida, Alice; Ribeiro, M.M.A.; Ferreira, Miguel R.; Roque, Natália; Quintela-Sabarís, Celestino; Fernandez, Paulo

Climate change’s huge impact on Mediterranean species’ habitat suitability and spatial and temporal distribution in the coming decades is expected. The present work aimed to reconstruct rockrose (Cistus ladanifer L.) historical and future spatial distribution, a typically Mediterranean species with abundant occurrence in North Africa, Iberian Peninsula, and Southern France. The R ensemble modeling approach was made using the biomod2 package to assess changes in the spatial distribution of the species in the Last Interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the Middle Holocene (MH), in the present, and in the future (for the years 2050 and 2070), considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The current species potential distribution was modeled using 2,833 occurrences, six bioclimatic variables, and four algorithms, Generalized Linear Model (GLM), MaxEnt, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two global climate models (GCMs), CCSM4 and MRI-CGCM3, were used to forecast past and future suitability. The potential area of occurrence of the species is equal to 15.8 and 14.1% of the study area for current and LIG conditions, while it decreased to 3.8% in the LGM. The species’ presence diaminished more than half in the RCP 4.5 (to 6.8% in 2050 and 7% in 2070), and a too low figure (2.2%) in the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5) for 2070. The results suggested that the current climatic conditions are the most suitable for the species’ occurrence and that future changes in environmental conditions may lead to the loss of suitable habitats, especially in the worst-case scenario. The information unfolded by this study will help to understand future predictable desertification in the Mediterranean region and to help policymakers to implement possible measures for biodiversity maintenance and desertification avoidance.

2023Journal article

Open access

Uncertainties in plant species niche modeling under climate change scenarios

Publication . Passos, Isabel; Figueiredo, Albano; Almeida, Alice; Ribeiro, M.M.A.

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to forecast the impact of climate change on species’ potential distribution, with results that might support decisions for conservation and biodiversity management. Despite their vulnerability to parameterization and data quality input, SDM use has been increasing in the last decades. In fact, inappropriate inputs and the lack of awareness about the effects of methodological decisions on results can lead to potential unreliability in results, a problem that might gain relevance when SDMs are used to predict climate change impacts on species-suitable areas. Aiming to assess how far such a topic is considered, an analysis of the calibration data and methodological decisions was conducted for recent publications (2018 to 2022) that include SDMs in this context, aiming to identify putative deviations from the consensual best practices. Results show that the parameters presented more consistently are the algorithm in use (MaxEnt was used in 98% of the studies), the

2024Journal article

Open access

Genetic structure and pod morphology of Inga edulis cultivated vs. wild populations from the Peruvian Amazon

Publication . Rollo, Alexandr; Ribeiro, M.M.A.; Costa, Rita; Santos, Carmen; Clavo P., Zoyla M.; Mandak, Bohumil; Kalousová, Marie; Vebrová, Hana; Chuqulin, Edilberto; Torres, Sergio G.; Aguilar, Roel M.V.; Hlavsa, Tomáš; Lojka, Bohdan

Research Highlights: This study assesses the genetic diversity and structure of the ice-cream-bean (Inga edulis Mart.) (Fabaceae), in wild and cultivated populations from the Peruvian Amazon. This research also highlights the importance of protecting the biodiversity of the forest in the Peruvian Amazon, to preserve the genetic resources of species and allow further genetic improvement. Background and Objectives: Ice-cream-bean is one of the most commonly used species in the Amazon region for its fruits and for shading protection of other species (e.g.: cocoa and coffee plantations). Comprehensive studies about the impact of domestication on this species’ genetic diversity are needed, to find the best conservation and improvement strategies. Materials and Methods: In the current study, the genetic structure and diversity were assessed by genotyping 259 trees, sampled in five wild and 22 cultivated I. edulis populations in the Peruvian Amazon, with microsatellite markers. Pod length was measured in wild and cultivated trees. Results: The average pod length in cultivated trees was significantly higher than that in wild trees. The expected genetic diversity and the average number of alleles was higher in the wild compared to the cultivated populations, thus, a loss of genetic diversity was confirmed in the cultivated populations. The cultivated trees in the Loreto region had the highest pod length and lowest allelic richness, nevertheless the wild populations’ genetic structure was not clearly differentiated (significantly different) from that of the cultivated populations. Conclusions: A loss of genetic diversity was confirmed in the cultivated populations. The species could have been simultaneously domesticated in multiple locations, usually from local origin. The original I. edulis Amazonian germplasm should be maintained. Cultivated populations’ new germplasm influx from wild populations should be undertaken to increase genetic diversity.

2020Journal article

Open access

Stevia rebaudiana germplasm characterization using microsatellite markers and steviol glycosides quantification by HPLC

Publication . Ribeiro, M.M.A.; Diamantino, Tatiana; Domingues, Joana Lopes; Montanari, Ílio; Alves, Marcos Nopper; Gonçalves, José Carlos

Stevia rebaudiana Bertoni, Asteraceae, is an herbaceous perennial plant native to Paraguay. This species is considered since ancient times a medicinal plant with important bioactive compounds and pharmacologic and food properties, namely diterpenes glycosides. The high natural sweetener potential stevioside and rebaudioside A produced by S. rebaudiana plants are suitable sucrose substitutes, and their obtention is influenced by environmental, phytosociological, and genetic factors. The plants' genetic profile and sweet potential depiction are needed for suitable plant selection for improvement and deployment. Thirty-one S. rebaudiana accessions grown in the same plot where leaves samples were collected in early 2019, were genotyped using six microsatellite markers, including two steviol glycosides biosynthesis functionally involved markers. Additionally, an aqueous extract of each sample was obtained in a water bath and purified by SPE for stevioside and rebaudioside A quantification by normal phase HPLC. Stevioside and rebaudioside A contents varied between 0.53-7.36% (w w-1) and 0.37-3.60% (w w-1), respectively. Two genotypes displayed interesting ratios of rebaudioside A/stevioside (number 3 and 33). The level of genetic similarity between genotypes was tested through a pairwise similarity coefficient, and two groups of individuals had the same fingerprinting. Strong relatedness was found within genotypes, possibly due to cloning, thus, influx of new germplasm ought to be made to prevent mating between relatives, and for further selection and genetic improvement.

2021Journal article

Open access