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Publicação
Climate-informed afforestation planning in Portugal: Balancing wood and non-wood production
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Orientador(es)
Resumo(s)
This study explores the potential for afforestation in Portugal that could balance wood and non-wood forest production under future climate change scenarios. The Climate Envelope Models (CEM) approach was employed with three main objectives: (1) to model the current distribution of key Portuguese forest species—eucalypts, maritime pine, umbrella pine, chestnut, and cork oak—based on their suitability for wood and non-wood production; (2) to project their potential distribution for the years 2070 and 2090 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP2–4.5 (moderate) and SSP5–8.5 (high emissions); and (3) to generate integrated species distribution maps identifying both current and future high-suitability zones to support afforestation planning, reflecting climatic compatibility under fixed thresholds. Species’ current CMEs were produced using an additive Boolean model with a set of environmental variables (e.g., temperature-related and precipitation-related, elevation, and soil) specific to each species. Species’ current CEMs were validated using forest inventory data and the official Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) map of Portugal, and a good agreement was obtained (>99%). By the end of the 21st century, marked reductions in species suitability are projected, especially for chestnut (36%–44%) and maritime pine (25%–35%). Incorporating future suitability projections and preventive silvicultural practices into afforestation planning is therefore essential to ensure climate-resilient and ecologically friendly forest management.
Descrição
The data files used in the study can be requested by email from the corresponding author but are also openly available at the following link: https://sig.icnf.pt/portal/home/item.html?id=dc60bcef20b844b88c8a0638d0fe943b (accessed on 15 January 2026).
Palavras-chave
Climate Envelope Models Forest species Suitability Climate change
Contexto Educativo
Citação
ROQUE, Natália [et al.] (2026) - Climate-informed afforestation planning in Portugal: Balancing wood and non-wood production. Forests. 17(1), 139. DOI: 10.390/f17010139
Editora
MDPI