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Climate-informed afforestation planning in Portugal: Balancing wood and non-wood production

2026Artigo de investigação Acesso aberto
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datacite.subject.fosCiências Agrárias::Agricultura, Silvicultura e Pescas
dc.contributor.authorRoque, Natália
dc.contributor.authorAlmeida, Alice
dc.contributor.authorFernandez, Paulo
dc.contributor.authorRibeiro, M.M.A.
dc.contributor.authorAlegria, C.M.M.
dc.date.accessioned2026-01-22T12:56:36Z
dc.date.available2026-01-22T12:56:36Z
dc.date.issued2026
dc.descriptionThe data files used in the study can be requested by email from the corresponding author but are also openly available at the following link: https://sig.icnf.pt/portal/home/item.html?id=dc60bcef20b844b88c8a0638d0fe943b (accessed on 15 January 2026).
dc.description.abstractThis study explores the potential for afforestation in Portugal that could balance wood and non-wood forest production under future climate change scenarios. The Climate Envelope Models (CEM) approach was employed with three main objectives: (1) to model the current distribution of key Portuguese forest species—eucalypts, maritime pine, umbrella pine, chestnut, and cork oak—based on their suitability for wood and non-wood production; (2) to project their potential distribution for the years 2070 and 2090 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP2–4.5 (moderate) and SSP5–8.5 (high emissions); and (3) to generate integrated species distribution maps identifying both current and future high-suitability zones to support afforestation planning, reflecting climatic compatibility under fixed thresholds. Species’ current CMEs were produced using an additive Boolean model with a set of environmental variables (e.g., temperature-related and precipitation-related, elevation, and soil) specific to each species. Species’ current CEMs were validated using forest inventory data and the official Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) map of Portugal, and a good agreement was obtained (>99%). By the end of the 21st century, marked reductions in species suitability are projected, especially for chestnut (36%–44%) and maritime pine (25%–35%). Incorporating future suitability projections and preventive silvicultural practices into afforestation planning is therefore essential to ensure climate-resilient and ecologically friendly forest management.eng
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), through the projects Research Centre for Natural Resources, Environment and Society-CERNAS, UID/681/2025 (DOI https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/00681/2025), the Forest Research Centre, UID/00239/2025 (DOI: 10.54499/UID/00239/2025) and UID/PRR/00239/2025 (DOI: 10.54499/UID/PRR/00239/2025), and the Associate Laboratory TERRA, LA/P/0092/2020 (DOI: 10.54499/LA/P/0092/2020). MED—Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development (https://doi.org/10.54499/UID/05183/2025). Associate Laboratory CHANGE—Global Change and Sustainability Institute (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0121/2020).
dc.identifier.citationROQUE, Natália [et al.] (2026) - Climate-informed afforestation planning in Portugal: Balancing wood and non-wood production. Forests. 17(1), 139. DOI: 10.390/f17010139
dc.identifier.doi10.390/f17010139
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.11/10485
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherMDPI
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectClimate Envelope Models
dc.subjectForest species
dc.subjectSuitability
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.titleClimate-informed afforestation planning in Portugal: Balancing wood and non-wood productioneng
dc.typeresearch article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.citation.titleForests
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameMartins Roque
person.familyNameFernandez
person.familyNameRibeiro
person.familyNameAlegria
person.givenNameNatália
person.givenNamePaulo
person.givenNameMaria Margarida
person.givenNameCristina Maria
person.identifierNatália Martins Roque
person.identifier349097
person.identifieruser=YnBEv3oAAAAJ&hl=en
person.identifier.ciencia-id451A-332D-0798
person.identifier.ciencia-id9E1E-1C0B-0DCB
person.identifier.ciencia-idAD12-4D32-7A48
person.identifier.ciencia-id9311-1EE5-AB03
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-8859-4365
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7252-8320
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4684-1262
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-6906-6660
person.identifier.ridM-4235-2013
person.identifier.scopus-author-id57200227653
person.identifier.scopus-author-id56675313500
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7201715611
person.identifier.scopus-author-id36952993700
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