ESACB - Artigos em revistas com arbitragem científica
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Percorrer ESACB - Artigos em revistas com arbitragem científica por Domínios Científicos e Tecnológicos (FOS) "Ciências Agrárias::Agricultura, Silvicultura e Pescas"
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- Climate-driven habitat shifts and conservation implications for the submediterranean oak Quercus pyrenaica Willd.Publication . Passos, Isabel; Vila-Viçosa , Carlos; Gonçalves , João; Figueiredo, Albano; Ribeiro, M.M.A.Climate change poses a major threat to forests, impacting the distribution and viability of key species. Quercus pyrenaicaWilld., a marcescent oak endemic to the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) and southwestern France and a structural species in submediterranean forests, is particularly susceptible to shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. Aiming to assess its potential loss of suitable area under future climate scenarios, we developed high-resolution spatial distribution models to project the future habitat suitability of Q. pyrenaica under two climate change scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2070 and 2100. Our model, which has an excellent predictive performance (AUC of 0.971 and a TSS of 0.834), indicates a predominantly northward shift in the potential distribution of the species, accompanied by substantial habitat loss in southern and lowland regions. Long-term potential suitable area may shrink to 42% of that currently available. This, combined with the limited natural dispersal capacity of the species, highlights the urgency of targeted management and conservation strategies. These results offer critical insights to inform conservation strategies and forest management under ongoing climate change.
- Climate-informed afforestation planning in Portugal: Balancing wood and non-wood productionPublication . Roque, Natália; Almeida, Alice; Fernandez, Paulo; Ribeiro, M.M.A.; Alegria, C.M.M.This study explores the potential for afforestation in Portugal that could balance wood and non-wood forest production under future climate change scenarios. The Climate Envelope Models (CEM) approach was employed with three main objectives: (1) to model the current distribution of key Portuguese forest species—eucalypts, maritime pine, umbrella pine, chestnut, and cork oak—based on their suitability for wood and non-wood production; (2) to project their potential distribution for the years 2070 and 2090 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP2–4.5 (moderate) and SSP5–8.5 (high emissions); and (3) to generate integrated species distribution maps identifying both current and future high-suitability zones to support afforestation planning, reflecting climatic compatibility under fixed thresholds. Species’ current CMEs were produced using an additive Boolean model with a set of environmental variables (e.g., temperature-related and precipitation-related, elevation, and soil) specific to each species. Species’ current CEMs were validated using forest inventory data and the official Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) map of Portugal, and a good agreement was obtained (>99%). By the end of the 21st century, marked reductions in species suitability are projected, especially for chestnut (36%–44%) and maritime pine (25%–35%). Incorporating future suitability projections and preventive silvicultural practices into afforestation planning is therefore essential to ensure climate-resilient and ecologically friendly forest management.
- Potential of different eighteen grapevine genotypes to produce wines in a hot region: First insights into volatile and sensory profilesPublication . Caldeira, Ilda; Roque, Rita; Anjos, O.; Lourenço, Sílvia; Deus João de; Damásio, Miguel; Silvestre, JoséA major challenge for the viticulture and oenology sector is to understand the impact of climate change on grapevine agronomic performance and wine quality. Genetic variability offers a key tool for adaptation, as some grape varieties may better withstand changing conditions while maintaining wine quality. As part of the WineClimAdapt research project (PDR2020-101-031010), a study was conducted on the adaptability of 18 white grape varieties to hot and dry conditions in Portugal. These grape varieties from Herdade do Esporão (Alentejo, Portugal) were vinified in duplicate at the INIAV winery, the result being 36 wines. The wines underwent physicochemical and sensory analyses, including gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and gas chromatography–flame ionization detection (GC-FID), to assess their composition and sensory profiles. Tasters evaluated the wines using a structured scale (0–10) and rated their overall quality (0–20). Results from analysis of variance (ANOVA) revealed significant differences in the physicochemical composition and sensory profiles of the wines. Notably, some white wines displayed high acidity, which is advantageous for hot regions. The study also highlighted clear varietal differentiation across physicochemical, volatile and sensory analyses. Among the tested varieties, “Cayetana Blanca” and “Fernão Pires” achieved the highest average quality ratings, indicating promising potential for future studies and adaptation to climate change.