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- Bioclimatic modelling and environmental tolerance to global change in strawberry treePublication . Ribeiro, M.M.A.; Roque, Natália; Ribeiro, Sílvia; Albuquerque, M.T.D.; Gavinhos, Catarina; Quinta-Nova, L. C.The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) displays potential to be successfully businesslike-cultured in several areas of Portugal and southern Europe, but remains largely a neglected crop. This region is also particularly vulnerable to global warming, reduction of precipitations and a long-term negative effect on vegetation. To investigate interactions between the species’ distribution and ecological factors we used 319 plots (1km grid level), where the species are present in Portugal, characterized with 8 ecological attributes: ombrothermic Index (OI), thermicity Index (TI) and continentality Index (CI), pH, organic matter (OM), sand, topographic position index (TPI), number of fires (NF) and burned area (BA). The obtained matrix was firstly analyzed through PCA to reduce the space of analysis by a construction of synthesis variables (Spearman’s rank correlation matrix) and thus to detect patterns within the data set and possible collinear covariates. Finally, the vulnerability of strawberry tree to the effects of global climate change was examined. For that purpose, two ‘representative concentration pathways’ (RCPs) scenarios were predicted (RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0) using climatic data, extracted from WorldClim, for distribution changes characterization in two periods (2050 and 2070). The MaxEnt allowed spatial Interpolation using the 319 1K plots. The PCA showed that the climatic attributes (OI, and TI) displayed the highest components’ correlation values. The strawberry tree prefers areas with higher TI and lower acidity values within the mesomediterranean and termomediterranean belts. Additionally, with lower correlation values, the presence of the species is explained by lower OI values, OM, BA and NF. The prediction results revealed reduction of the potential area of the species, providing a key tool to support conservation management decisions, to design regions of provenance, and to manage genetic improvement programs.
- Multicriteria Spatial Analysis to evaluate strawberry tree biophysical suitabilityPublication . Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Ribeiro, Sílvia; Roque, Natália; Ribeiro, M.M.A.The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) is a native species, water stress and low fertility soils tolerant, actively resistant to wild fires and widely distributed in Portugal. In this study we intend to identify the most suitable habitat to the species in the Center region of Portugal based on the integration of a set of biogeophysical factors.For that purpose we estimated descriptors based in topography, soil, fire history,and the current and potential vegetation cover. Climatological data were collected to calculate bioclimatic indexes, using geostatistical tools. The different layers were classified in to three suitability levels for Arbutus: unfavorable, indifferent and favorable.Based on the layers resulting from the reclassification in suitability levels, we calculated the habitat suitability index (HSI) for strawberry tree.The suitability evaluation was performed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). According to AHP methodology, weights and priorities to be given to criteria results from an evaluation made by a set of experts, along pair comparison matrix being developed using a scale of nine levels.
- Modelação ecológica em medronheiro usando redes BaiesianasPublication . Albuquerque, M.T.D.; Gerassis, Saki; Roque, Natália; Ribeiro, Sílvia; Taboada, Javier; Martín, José; Ribeiro, M.M.A.O medronheiro (Arbutus unedo L.) tem potencial para ser uma cultura de sucesso comercial em várias regiões de Portugal, onde está bem-adaptado ao clima e solos. A espécie tem sido usada pelas populações locais para consumo do fruto em fresco ou processado, sobretudo como aguardente, no entanto continua a ser uma espécie largamente negligenciada, ainda que tenha muitos usos comerciais possíveis, desde a produção do fruto em fresco ou processado, a uso ornamental, farmacêutico, ou aplicações dos produtos bioativos. Além disso, devido ao seu estatuto pioneiro, é útil na recuperação dos solos, evitando a desertificação e tem, também, resistência ao fogo. A construção de um modelo ecológico para o medronho, foi obtida através de uma abordagem Baiesiana. Na investigação em curso, foi utilizada uma grelha de 1 Km2 ao longo de todo o território português (90425 parcelas), para o conjunto dos 10 atributos utilizados: sete variáveis bioclimáticas para a representação de uma "distância climática" - Bio1; Bio2; Bio5; Bio 9; Bio 15; Temperatura Máxima e Temperatura Mínima (WorldClim 1.4, 2017) e três variáveis geográficas - Altitude; Declive e Uso do Solo - para capturar uma "distância geográfica". Finalmente, a presença/ausência da espécie foi a variável objetivo. Foram usados quatro cenários: 1. Série de controle (1960-1990), visando a modelação das condições atuais; 2. Três diferentes cenários de efeito de estufa: Holocénico Médio (há 6000 anos); 2050 e 2070, utilizando o cenário de concentração de CO2 mais pessimista (RCP 8,5). As redes Baiesianas são Grafos Acíclicos Direcionados (GAD) onde os nós e os arcos tipificam as relações de causa e efeito entre variáveis em estudo. A estrutura topológica de um modelo Baiesiano reflete a dependência das variáveis e descreve a distribuição de probabilidade de certos acontecimentos, ocorrendo a condições específicas. As informações obtidas neste estudo serão utilizadas para a elaboração de regiões de proveniência, para melhoramento genético e conservação da espécie.
- Efeito do aquecimento global numa espécie mediterrânica típica: o medronheiroPublication . Ribeiro, M.M.; Roque, Natália; Ribeiro, Sílvia; Gavinhos, Catarina; Silva, Isabel Castanheira; Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Albuquerque, M.T.D.; Sak, Gerassis DaviteiA região do Mediterrâneo sofrerá um elevado aumento de temperatura, cerca de 1,5 vezes superior ao período 1880-1920, por comparação com as outras regiões do mundo. Os impactos na floresta em Portugal, devido às alterações climáticas, sugerem uma tendência na migração de espécies, do sul para o norte e do interior para as áreas costeiras. Além disso, sob este cenário, as florestas podem desaparecer das áreas mais secas (a região interior do sul). O risco de incêndios florestais aumentará num clima mais quente e seco e pode ainda ser aumentado pela acumulação de biomassa de alta inflamabilidade no Verão. O impacto na economia florestal pode ser extremamente severo, a diminuição da produtividade, o aumento do risco de incêndio e o risco de pragas e doenças, e podem tornar o investimento florestal pouco atraente, resultando no aumento do abandono florestal. Neste estudo, o nosso objetivo foi modelar do ponto de vista ecológico uma espécie tipicamente mediterrânea amplamente distribuída no país e na região do Mediterrâneo, o medronheiro (Arbutus unedo L.). Através da modelação, é possível revelar o impacto dos fatores ambientais na distribuição dos habitats do medronheiro e avaliar a alteração do nicho ecológico usando cenários contrastantes de aquecimento global. Para aumentar o nosso conhecimento sobre a distribuição espacial da espécie, 318 pontos de presença da espécie, juntamente com um vetor de covariáveis ambientais (7 atributos bioclimáticos, declive e altitude) e pontos de não presença, foram utilizados para modelação. Os dados climáticos atuais e futuros foram obtidos através do WorldClim. Finalmente, a vulnerabilidade do medronheiro aos efeitos da mudança climática global foi examinada usando dois cenários de emissões (RCP 4.5 e 8.5), para prever mudanças de distribuição nos anos 2050 e 2070, utilizando um software de modelação ecológica (MaxEnt). A redução do habitat adequado para esta espécie é significativa nas regiões do sul, considerando os futuros cenários de aquecimento global. As regiões montanhosas do centro e do norte são presumíveis refúgios previstos para esta espécie. A política de gestão florestal deve refletir o impacto da mudança climática nas áreas utilizáveis para a silvicultura, considerando em particular as espécies adaptadas às regiões do Mediterrâneo e aos incêndios florestais, como o medronheiro.
- Habitat suitability modelling of Asphodelus bento-rainhae P. Silva using spatial multicriteria analysisPublication . Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Roque, Natália; Ribeiro, SílviaAsphodelus bento-rainhae P. Silva is a plant species belonging to the order of Liliales. This endemic plant occurs in central Portugal in an area of only 700 hectare on the northern slopes of the Serra da Gardunha (Fundão, Portugal). It is mainly present in north to northeast facing slopes and found in deep soils and open areas, where it is found at higher densities. It occurs along the edges of oak (Quercus robur and Quercus pyrenaica) and chestnut (Castanea sativa) forests, often reaching the herbaceous edges of these woods. Sometimes, it survives in pine forests of Pinus pinaster, mixed woods and slopes or roadsides and in lower abundances in scrubby vegetation. This species survival is threatened by forest fires and the conversion of woodland into cherry orchards, and the fruit growers’ extensive use of herbicides. The tree plantations, as well as urban sprawl, have decreased the extent and quality of its habitat. It is also confronted with invasive plants, such as Acacia dealbata. The mapping of the A. bento-rainhae habitat suitability index results on the integration of a set of biophysical factors using the ArcGIS 10.3 software, based on the Sectorial Plan for Natura 2000 Network and other literature concerning the species ecology. The data used included bioclimatic, soil and topographic variables, based on a digital terrain model (DTM). All the geographic themes (criteria) were classified into three suitability levels: unfavorable, less favorable and favorable. Based on the resulting reclassified themes, the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) for A. bento-rainhae P. Silva was calculated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The fundamental concept of AHP lies in proceeding from a pairwise comparison of criteria to evaluate the weights that assign relative importance to these criteria. In the end, a map algebra was performed in order to obtain the final theme representing the habitat suitability for A. bento-rainhae. The results regarding the actual species distribution, obtained in the aim of fied work performed in the LIFE-Nature project “Asphodelus bento-rainhae - Measures to manage and preserve it" show a high correlation with the suitability values.
- Formações arborescentes de azereiro (Prunus lusitanica L. subsp. lusitanica) : um habitat prioritário para conservação na Europa.Publication . Ribeiro, Sílvia; Delgado, F.M.G.; Azevedo, LeonelNo âmbito de um levantamento sobre a flora da Serra do Moradal, no intuito de se publicar um Guia Botânico da mesma, foram efetuadas diversas saídas de campo - durante o ano de 2015 - para caracterização, identificação e localização de espécies. No sítio da Fraga da Água de Alto, freguesia do Orvalho, considerada uma das maiores quedas de água da Beira Baixa, identificou-se uma significativa comunidade de azereiros, vestígios da Laurissilva. Dado o interesse conservacionista destas formações a nível europeu, efetuamos a sua caracterização. Para além disso, efetuamos algumas abordagens históricas, taxonómicas e morfológicas do Prunus lusitanica, bem como de alguns aspetos da sua propagação e utilizações mais comuns.
- Predicting the effectiveness of Tejo International Nature Park in protecting vegetation under climate changePublication . Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Ribeiro, SilviaClimate change induces a redistribution of life on Earth that affects the effectiveness of protected areas. Species shift their ranges under climate change to track suitable climate, mainly shifting poleward and towards higher elevation. They often face degraded habitats in human-dominated landscapes and a higher extinction threat. Also, climate change may result in the loss of combinations of climatic conditions that are restricted to a given protected area. On the other hand, species with a restricted presence could expand their distribution range resulting from climate change. To study the effectiveness of Tejo International Nature Park, located in the central-eastern part of Portugal, Maxent software was used to model the current distribution of three shrub species - Pistacia terebinthus L., Juniperus oxycedrus L. and Rhamnus lycioides L. - indicators of typical Mediterranean vegetation with a regional distribution restricted to the Tejo International Natural Park, and project its future distribution considering different General Circulation Models, periods (2060 and 2080) and Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5). The variables most impacting on the species distribution were the mean precipitation of the driest quarter, annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, and slope. The results suggested some range expansion in the future for all three species for the studied scenarios. Those species and the vegetation where they occur will probably remain confined to center-eastern Portugal in the future, where they will continue to face relevant threats like human activity, reinforcing the need for its conservation.
- Modelação da adequabilidade de habitat do Asphodelus bento-rainhae P. Silva com recurso ao Processo Analítico Hierárquico (AHP)Publication . Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Roque, Natália; Ribeiro, SílviaAsphodelus bento-rainhae P. Silva is a plant species belonging to the order of Liliales. This endemic plant occurs in central Portugal in an area of only 700 hectare on the northern slopes of the Serra da Gardunha (Fundão, Portugal). It is mainly present in north to northeast facing slopes and found in deep soils and open areas, where it is found at higher densities. It occurs along the edges of oak (Quercus robur and Quercus pyrenaica) and chestnut (Castanea sativa) forests, often reaching the herbaceous edges of these woods. Sometimes, it survives in pine forests of Pinus pinaster, mixed woods and slopes or roadsides and in lower abundances in scrubby vegetation. This species survival is threatened by forest fires and the conversion of woodland into cherry orchards, and the fruit growers’ extensive use of herbicides. The tree plantations, as well as urban sprawl, have decreased the extent and quality of its habitat. It is also confronted with invasive plants, such as Acacia dealbata. The mapping of the A. bento-rainhae habitat suitability index results on the integration of a set of biophysical factors using the ArcGIS 10.3 software, based on the Sectorial Plan for Natura 2000 Network and other literature concerning the species ecology. The data used included bioclimatic, soil and topographic variables, based on a digital terrain model (DTM). All the geographic themes (criteria) were classified into three suitability levels: unfavorable, less favorable and favorable. Based on the resulting reclassified themes, the habitat suitability index (HSI) for A. bento-rainhae P. Silva was calculated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The fundamental concept of AHP lies in proceeding from a pairwise comparison of criteria to evaluate the weights that assign relative importance to these criteria. In the end, a map algebra was performed in order to obtain the final theme representing the habitat suitability for A. bento-rainhae. The results regarding the actual species distribution, obtained in the aim of fied work performed in the LIFE-Nature project “Asphodelus bento-rainhae - Measures to manage and preserve it" show a high correlation with the values of HSI.
- Vegetação autóctone aplicada a painéis de cobertura e fachadas verdes de edifícios urbanos - " Projeto GEOGREEN"Publication . Delgado, F.M.G.; Silva, M.C.A.; Seco, Maria de Fátima Magro; Ribeiro, SílviaVegetação autóctone aplicada a painéis de cobertura e fachadas verdes de edifícios urbanos
- Bioclimatic modeling in the Last Glacial Maximum, Mid-Holocene and facing future climatic changes in the strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.)Publication . Ribeiro, M.M.A.; Roque, Natália; Ribeiro, Sílvia; Gavinhos, Catarina; Silva, Isabel Castanheira; Quinta-Nova, L.C.; Albuquerque, M.T.D.; Gerassis, SakiIncreasing forest wildfires in Portugal remain a growing concern since forests in the Mediterranean region are vulnerable to recent global warming and reduction of precipitation. Therefore, a long-term negative effect is expected on the vegetation, with increasing drought and areas burnt by fires. The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) is particularly used in Portugal to produce a spirit by processing its fruits and is the main income for forestry owners. Other applications are possible due to the fruit and leaves' anti-oxidant properties and bioactive compounds production, with a potential for clinical and food uses. It is a sclerophyllous plant, dry-adapted and fire resistant, enduring the Mediterranean climate, and recently considered as a possibility for afforestation, to intensify forest discontinuity where pines and eucalypts monoculture dominate the region. To improve our knowledge about the species' spatial distribution we used 318 plots (the centroid of a 1 km2 square grid) measuring the species presence and nine environmental attributes. The seven bioclimatic variables most impacting on the species distribution and two topographic features, slope and altitude, were used. The past, current and future climate data were obtained through WorldClim. Finally, the vulnerability of the strawberry tree to the effects of global climate change was examined in the face of two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), to predict distribution changes in the years 2050 and 2070, using a species distribution models (MaxEnt). The reduction of suitable habitat for this species is significant in the southern regions, considering the future scenarios of global warming. Central and northern mountainous regions are putative predicted refuges for this species. Forest policy and management should reflect the impact of climate change on the usable areas for forestry, particularly considering species adapted to the Mediterranean regions and wildfires, such as the strawberry tree. The distribution of the species in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Mid-Holocene (MH) agrees with previous genetic and paleontological studies in the region, which support putative refuges for the species. Two in the southern and coastal-central regions, since the LGM, and one in the east-central mountainous region, considered as cryptic refugia.